The LA Times takes a stab at sorting out the numbers game in the planned SAG Strike Authorization Vote.
They miss some important metrics, however.
First, tonight’s Hollywood Town Hall meeting will be important. Likely turnout will be higher than usual for SAG meetings since the issue is hot and MF will beat the carpets to turn out supporters. But if there is a disappointingly low turnout – anything less than overcapacity – then the Guild leadership should ask themselves whether the SAV is worth pursuing.
Second, a small SAV turnout itself is to no one’s advantage. Those in favor of a strike should turn out in as large numbers as possible because otherwise the SAV gives SAG no new leverage whatsoever. And those who are opposed should also turn out in large numbers since a solid No vote sends an unmistakable signal to the Guild negotiating committee, even the hard of hearing MF’ers, that it is time to cut a deal and reconsider long term Guild strategy.
(As we here at V’wood have long argued, the MF leadership’s knee jerk militancy has done serious damage to the Guild and is terribly shortsighted. Rebuilding Guild credibility and therefore actor power in the industry will require a dramatic change in direction and tone.)
Third, the Times ignores the dynamic of small numbers and big clout in the Guild. There are some rumors circulating that some key A-listers are prepared to intervene once again in the SAV process, presumably against it. Even a small number of credible A-listers can have an outsized impact. Again, better they speak up now and clearly if they wish to stop this train before it leaves the station.