Category Archives: Uncategorized

Remembering Ron Santo

I knew Ron Santo, first, from a distance, as a lifelong Cubs fan and then, when he retired, as one of his regular caddies when he turned to golf at the local country club.

He was a generous and warm person with a giant personality who dominated the golf course the way he dominated the field. Within a few short years he was a scratch golfer and club champion, regularly smashing 300 yard drives down the center of the fairway, in an era long before 300 became the norm among professional golfers – prima facie evidence of his tremendous athletic ability.

He was a breath of fresh air in that all too clubby and cloistered leafy green suburban environment.

He will be missed.

Ron Santo, Longtime Cubs Stalwart, Dies at 70 – NYTimes.com.

Benoit Mandelbrot, Polymath, Dies at 85

mandelbrotFor me this is very sad and personal news. Benoit and I had become friends over the last several years, having numerous long conversations about the very wrong turn that economics had taken. He was a brilliant and unusual man whose unorthodox career path nonetheless resulted in fundamental contributions to science and social science that will last for many years. Thus, I have edited the title to the Times obituary from “mathematician” to “polymath.”

Our friendship began when he called me out of the blue one day in response to an email I had sent him about the strange approach the U.S. Supreme Court took to the theory of market efficiency. He was amazed to hear that law professors at his own institution, Yale, actually seemed to believe and teach that markets were efficient.

While Benoit is best known to the wider world for his work on fractals (an example, the “Mandelbrot set” is pictured above), it was actually his earlier foundational work on how prices behaved on the world’s cotton markets that I was interested in. In fact, that work helped lay the basis for his discovery of fractals.

He found in his analysis of price behavior that in fact markets could behave in wild and very difficult to predict fashion. Any idea of smooth and continuous markets, the basis of the theory of efficient markets, was foreign to him. He began a lifelong interest in “roughness” that eventually led to fractals. This work alone should have earned Mandelbrot the Nobel Prize in Economics. You can listen to him explain his views here and here.

My current research project on the behavior of stock exchanges was inspired by Mandelbrot’s ideas. In particular, he noted in response to the recent financial crisis that there is an absence of “inertia” at work in the markets and thus the kinds of large price moves we have seen in recent years, up and down, are to be expected.

My co-author Jenny Kuan at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research and I have been trying to determine if, in fact, good institutional design of capital markets can create a kind of “synthetic inertia” that indeed could help establish more reliable exchanges. If so, then we could have a lower cost of capital and perhaps a healthier economy.

We had hoped, of course, to engage Benoit in a discussion of our results. Sadly, that will not happen.

Benoit Mandelbrot, Mathematician, Dies at 85 – NYTimes.com.

SEC Puts Proxy Access on Hold

This is a setback for the corporate governance movement. Business representatives so fear their own shareholders that they are suing to overturn the new proxy access rules put in place by the SEC. In response, unfortunately, the SEC has stayed implementation of the rules.

More on this soon.

HP – Poster Child For Proxy Access

thumbstandard1Back in 2008 I found myself in a somewhat heated exchange with Yale’s Jeffrey Sonnenfeld at a conference at the Yale School of Management. He heartily defended the HP board of directors for ousting veteran technology oriented directors Tom Perkins, founder of companies like Genentech and a 20 year veteran of HP under its founders Bill Hewlett and Dave Packard, and George Keyworth. Of course, it turned out the “spying” methods used to go after Keyworth were anything but moral and touched on being illegal.

Sonnenfeld has once again come to the HP board’s defense in its latest ouster, this time of its wildly successful CEO, Mark Hurd. Hurd’s “sins,” at worst, remind one of the silliness that led right wing Republicans to impeach President Clinton. Both men landed on their feet, to say the least. Clinton is now one of the most respected political leaders on the planet and Hurd is now helping HP’s frenemy, Oracle, integrate newly acquired Sun into a rapidly evolving tech services market for Larry Ellison.

So what is that people like Sonnenfeld, not to say the current HP board itself, don’t understand?

The problem is that the mantra for board independence has in fact led to a culture of “politically correct” conservatism in American capitalism as a whole that threatens American leadership in innovation, creativity and productivity. HP’s board is independent, alright, so independent that only two of the ten board members (prior to the elevation of Ray Lane as chair and Leo Apotheker as CEO) had any serious technology experience. None has a real science background. The only stock the board members own appears to have been given to them by the Company for their “service” to shareholders.

Compare this to people like Ellison, who still has the bulk of his wealth tied up in Oracle, a company he founded several decades ago. Steve Jobs at Apple would have most of his wealth still in the company if their board hadn’t stupidly fired him some years back only to have to finally admit the silliness of their move and bring him back. Apple is now one of the most successful companies in modern business history.

Suffice to say when a board looks like that of HP, filled with bean counting finance people and other non-entities, it tends to look for leaders who have the same look and feel. So they have come up with a Leo Apotheker who was ousted from SAP after only 8 months as its sole CEO last year in the wake of a short but disastrous run in which he alienated, in turn, employees, shareholders, customers and fellow executives.

Despite the opportunity to hire from among the world’s best and brightest and to take on their board, no doubt, some of the world’s leading business and political leaders, the HP board circled the wagons and coughed up someone who in his first phone conference with Wall Street analysts did not even know the correct name of the company he was hired to lead. The market proceeded to wipe billions off HP’s share price.

To make matters worse, the board recruited Ray Lane, a venture capitalist, as board chair. Lane was pushed out of Oracle when he was no longer seen as a potential replacement for CEO Larry Ellison. But Lane no doubt remains hungry to become a CEO and will be waiting to pounce if, or when, Apotheker screws up.  This is an unstable and unworkable governance structure.

No wonder the HP board has been blasted publicly by, among others, Jack Welch and Larry Ellison. No wonder the stock lost billions in value after the ousting of Hurd and lost billions more after the elevation of Apotheker to the CEO spot.

Of course, life under Hurd was not great. He, too, was largely a number cruncher who relied heavily on buying R&D instead of nurturing it as had been HP’s “Way” under its founders, Bill Hewlett and Dave Packard, two of the founding giants of Silicon Valley.  Employee morale has sunk to historic lows as many talented engineers and scientists leave for greener pastures as their stock options vest.

No doubt, Hurd, and his predecessor Carly Fiorina, were largely responsible for picking the current feckless board, using their control of the proxy system.

Recently, the SEC made it easier for investors to nominate candidates for corporate boards, the so-called “proxy access” rules. These allow investors who, together, hold 3% or more the stock of a corporation to put nominees on the same proxy consent request used by corporate management to solicit consent, or the votes, of shareholders. The rule changes turn the consent request into an actual ballot with competing slates appearing on the same piece of paper received by shareholders.

HP would make a perfect test case for the new rules. Let’s hope Cal/PERS and other large institutional investors step forward to change the leadership culture at our country’s most important technology company.

Academic Notes

From time to time readers ask about my academic work. Here are some recent highlights:

I was interviewed recently for an article based in part on my new book, From Che to China, by, of all places, Inside Fashion, an industry magazine published in Hong Kong. An English language version of the article can be found here and a Chinese language version can be found here.

I was interviewed and quoted extensively in Dan Schwartz’s new book on Private Equity and Dan named me to his “Class of 2010 in Private Equity and Venture Capital.” A link to the text can be found here. My comments to Dan were largely based on a paper I completed recently on organized labor and private equity which can be found here. It will appear as a chapter in a book edited by Peer Zumbansen (York) and Cynthia Williams (Illinois) soon.

I will be presenting my work on the financial markets with economist Jennifer Kuan, a research fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, at a conference on the current economic crisis to be held at the New School next week. You can learn more about the conference here. Jenny, in turn, will be presenting our paper at the Industry Studies Conference at the University of Illinois Chicago soon after that. You can learn more about that conference here. And you can access a draft of our paper here.

What did John Yoo do wrong?

At the very least, John Yoo needs to re-think what it means to be a lawyer.

That is the minimal conclusion one reaches after reading the final report of the Office of Professional Responsibility of the Department of Justice and the final review of that report by the DOJ’s Assistant Deputy Attorney General David Margolis.

Margolis rejected the OPR conclusion that Yoo had engaged in intentional misconduct, but no one who reads both the report and the Margolis review letter can come away with anything other than a queasy feeling in their gut that someone like Yoo was advising the CIA during the early stages of the post-9/11 period.

As Margolis indicates, Yoo came to the position with his own personal view of expansive presidential power. He then used his position as a top legal advisor to the Executive Branch to assert that viewpoint.

As Margolis conceded:

“While I have declined to adopt OPR’s findings of misconduct, I fear John Yoo’s loyalty to his own ideology and convictions clouded his view of his obligations to his client and led him to author opinions that reflected his own extreme, albeit sincerely held, views of executive power while speaking for an institutional client.”

Yoo was asked by the CIA for legal advice about the use of interrogation techniques. Specifically, whether or not these would be considered torture and thus subject CIA officers to legal liability. The CIA was so concerned about this potential liability that it actually asked for “advance pardons” in case of future prosecutions.

In other words, the CIA was looking for a “Get Out of Jail Free” card and they asked John Yoo to provide them one.

Although it should have been perfectly clear to Yoo that his view of presidential power was not sufficiently well accepted to assure the CIA that they would not be held liable at some point in the future he nonetheless advised them that they could engage in tactics like water boarding.

When a lawyer is asked for advice about the law he is really being asked, as Oliver Wendell Holmes suggested, to predict what it is that a judge (or jury) is likely to do if they are asked to assess what happened. A lawyer’s client deserves no less.

CIA officers involved in the “war on terror” have already faced liability for their actions in Italy. It may only be a matter of time before they face prosecution in the United States.

When the CIA called Yoo they needed a lawyer. An ideologue answered the phone and sadly misled them. As a result it is likely that hundreds of people were needlessly and illegally harmed.

One wonders if the UC Berkeley Law Dean, Chris Edley, who has hidden behind John Yoo for several years will have the courage to respond appropriately. While Yoo cannot have his tenure revoked, there is nonetheless a need for other action to be taken here if only to put students at Berkeley on notice about the actual content of Professor Yoo’s behavior and ideology.

Did Al Gore Really Say That?

Al Gore has millions invested in his climate change myth according to the New York Times. He defends himself by calling his critics “deniers” – what, as if they were denying the Holocaust?

The myth, of course, is not whether or not global warming is taking place – although some of the same people who told us 20 years ago to expect an Ice Age are now telling us the opposite.  No, the climate definitely changes and the direction is a subject of legitimate debate.

The myth, of course, is whether human carbon contribution has anything to do with it. Ice core samples over 400,000 years demonstrate that in fact warming PRECEDES carbon change by some 800 years.

Gore’s Dual Role in Spotlight: Advocate and Investor – DealBook Blog – NYTimes.com.